Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 390 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Today

UA 390 · MCO → IAD

departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 8:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±5 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 390 · MCO → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?