UA 477 · MEM → IAH

departs 6:30 AM CT · arrives 8:23 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 477 · MEM → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?