Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 504 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

UA 504 · LAX → RDM

departs 4:32 PM PT · arrives 6:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at RDM more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDM?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

RDM (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 504 · LAX → RDM

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDM?