Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 541 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

UA 541 · STL → ORD

departs 5:30 PM CT · arrives 6:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 541 · STL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?