Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 651 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Today

UA 651 · FLL → ORD

departs 6:03 PM ET · arrives 8:26 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±14 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 35 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at FLL that day

↑ 6pm departures from FLL are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts34 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.52 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 651 · FLL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?