Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 653 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Tomorrow

UA 653 · SNA → SFO

departs 7:24 AM PT · arrives 8:56 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 653 · SNA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?