Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8107 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

UA 8107 · IAH → SFO

departs 6:10 PM CT · arrives 8:23 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.32 in

SFO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8107 · IAH → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?