Schedule: FAA flight plans.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 868 IN THE AIR (OFF 6:22 PM JST, SEEN BY ADS-B, ETA 4:06 PM CT)

Tuesday, October 27 Today

UA 868 · NRT → ORD

took off 6:22 PM JST · expected to land 4:06 PM CT (scheduled 6:00 PM JST → 5:15 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

NRT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 868 · NRT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?