Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 969 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Today

UA 969 · AMS → SFO

departs 3:00 PM CET · arrives 6:03 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +36 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
35%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMS

Weather at each end

AMS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 969 · AMS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?