VB 165 · SAT → MEX

took off 6:49 PM CT · expected to land 7:26 PM CST (scheduled 5:53 PM CT → 7:06 PM CST)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

89% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEX?

LIVE

On time or early
11%
15–30 min late
50%
30 min–1 hour late
39%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 5pm departures from SAT are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SAT that day

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

VB 165 · SAT → MEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEX?