VS 136 · MCO → LHR

took off 6:53 PM ET · expected to land 6:30 AM GMT (scheduled 5:54 PM ET → 5:35 AM GMT)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LHR more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LHR?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
39%
1–2 hours late
61%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LHR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

VS 136 · MCO → LHR

Odds over time

How late will it get to LHR?