WN 1231 · PVD → BWI

departs 1:53 PM ET · arrives 3:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PVD is prone to delays

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PVD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1231 · PVD → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?