Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
WN 1409 · LAS → STL
departs 6:51 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 17%
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30 12%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.