WN 1558 · MDW → MCO

took off 8:35 AM CT · expected to land 11:37 AM ET (scheduled 7:50 AM CT → 11:17 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

93% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

LIVE

On time or early
7%
15–30 min late
44%
30 min–1 hour late
49%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1558 · MDW → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?