WN 1576 · PHX → ELP

departs 8:20 AM MT · arrives 10:43 AM MT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ 8am departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1576 · PHX → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?