Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1760
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
WN 1760 · DEN → SBA
departs 8:38 PM MT · arrives 10:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 18%
Thu 10/29 6%
Fri 10/30 8%
Mon 11/2 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
SBA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.