WN 2301 · PHX → AUS

departs 10:27 AM MT · arrives 2:51 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2301 · PHX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?