WN 2786 · SAN → SLC

departs 3:47 PM PT · arrives 6:48 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SLC?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SLC (destination) Gusts40 kt Ceiling9,857 ft Visibility8.28571 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2786 · SAN → SLC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SLC?