WN 3427 · SAN → SEA

departs 7:07 AM PT · arrives 9:54 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3427 · SAN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?