WN 3433 · SAT → MCO

departs 5:59 AM CT · arrives 9:37 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt forecast at MCO that day

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from SAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.05 in

MCO (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3433 · SAT → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?