WN 3487 · BWI → GSP

departs 6:33 PM ET · arrives 8:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GSP?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GSP (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3487 · BWI → GSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSP?