WN 3782 · SFO → MDW

took off 12:45 AM PT · expected to land 6:21 AM CT (scheduled 12:03 AM PT → 6:12 AM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

LIVE

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
39%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

MDW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3782 · SFO → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?