Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
WN 406 · OKC → LAS
departs 11:25 AM CT · arrives 11:59 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±0 pts
+25 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +25 pts in 24h
+25 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↑
LAS is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OKC (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.