WN 4120 · DEN → BWI

took off 12:33 AM MT · expected to land 5:29 AM ET (scheduled 12:23 AM MT → 5:55 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4120 · DEN → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?