Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
WN 419 · MCO → PIT
departs 2:30 PM ET · arrives 4:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±7 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.