WN 420 · MCO → BUF

took off 9:25 AM ET · expected to land 11:32 AM ET (scheduled 9:14 AM ET → 11:51 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BUF?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↑ MCO is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at MCO that day

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 420 · MCO → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?