WN 4255 · SLC → SAN

departs 2:42 PM MT · arrives 3:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SLC (origin) Gusts40 kt Ceiling9,857 ft Visibility8.28571 mi Precip0.01 in

SAN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4255 · SLC → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?