WN 4296 · AUS → LAS

departs 11:59 AM CT · arrives 12:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4296 · AUS → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?