Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 430
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
WN 430 · LGA → DEN
departs 2:05 PM ET · arrives 3:50 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 20%
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30 53%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
29%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.