WN 4317 · SFO → AUS

departs 9:18 AM PT · arrives 2:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 53% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

AUS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4317 · SFO → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?