WN 4361 · SNA → DEN

departs 6:46 AM PT · arrives 10:09 AM MT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SNA are usually not late

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4361 · SNA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?