Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4553 LANDED 1:12 AM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Today

WN 4553 · BWI → ISP

took off 12:24 AM ET · landed 1:12 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into ISP at that hour are often late

↑ 12am departures from BWI are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ISP (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4553 · BWI → ISP

Odds over time