WN 468 · LAX → SMF

departs 6:53 AM PT · arrives 8:25 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

3% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
97%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 468 · LAX → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?