Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5105
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
WN 5105 · LAS → BUF
departs 10:56 AM PT · arrives 6:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
29%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BUF at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.