WS 1541 · IAH → YYC

departs 8:01 AM CT · arrives 11:16 AM MDT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at YYC more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to YYC?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 1.33333 mi forecast at YYC that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYC (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WS 1541 · IAH → YYC

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYC?