WS 1681 · JFK → YYC

took off 5:37 PM ET · expected to land 8:10 PM MDT (scheduled 5:47 PM ET → 9:01 PM MDT)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at YYC more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to YYC?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at YYC that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 5pm departures from JFK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYC (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,167 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WS 1681 · JFK → YYC

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYC?