Y4 1743 · LAS → GDL

departs 12:40 PM PT · arrives 4:57 PM CST

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GDL?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GDL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 1743 · LAS → GDL

Odds over time

How late will it get to GDL?