Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4068 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday

YV 4068 · IAH → BTR

departs 4:29 PM CT · arrives 5:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at BTR more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BTR?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.8 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BTR

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.32 in

BTR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9.71429 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4068 · IAH → BTR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BTR?