YV 4069 · IAH → BHM

departs 6:21 PM CT · arrives 8:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BHM?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BHM (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4069 · IAH → BHM

Odds over time

How late will it get to BHM?