YV 6126 · MAF → IAH

departs 8:31 AM CT · arrives 10:10 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ YV's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ 8am departures from MAF are usually not late

Weather at each end

MAF (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6126 · MAF → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?