Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6283 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday

YV 6283 · JAX → IAH

departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 7:07 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.8 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at JAX that day

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6283 · JAX → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?