YX 3419 · MKE → ORD

departs 8:52 AM CT · arrives 9:47 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3419 · MKE → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?