Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
YX 3431 · IAD → YYZ
departs 8:39 AM ET · arrives 10:23 AM EDT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 6%
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
IAD is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.