Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3432
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
YX 3432 · ORD → PIT
departs 12:40 PM CT · arrives 3:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 7%
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.