YX 3433 · EWR → BUF

departs 9:38 PM ET · arrives 11:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 9pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3433 · EWR → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?