Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3473
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
YX 3473 · EWR → RDU
departs 8:53 AM ET · arrives 10:37 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30 28%
Sat 10/31 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↑
8am departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
This flight has been late 11% of the time recently
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.