YX 3504 · IAD → DTW

departs 12:37 PM ET · arrives 2:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↑ 12pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3504 · IAD → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?