Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3512
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
YX 3512 · OMA → EWR
departs 2:49 PM CT · arrives 6:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30 52%
Sat 10/31 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
OMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OMA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.