Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3552 LANDED 11:05 PM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday

YX 3552 · EWR → CVG

took off 9:37 PM ET · landed 11:05 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3552 · EWR → CVG

Odds over time