YX 3558 · IAD → PHL

took off 10:31 PM ET · landed 11:00 PM ET (scheduled 10:24 PM ET → 11:56 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ IAD is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling10,314 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3558 · IAD → PHL

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHL?